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COVID-19 & The Six Stages of Societal Change: A map of the intersection of current events, human behavior, and likely societal impact based on prior research and current consumer behavior


The Six Stages of (Game-Changing) Crisis Impact on Society

Depending on the size and scale of the event, one or more of these stages may be reduced.  But in the largest events (The Civil War, WW2, The Great Depression), they are each omnipresent and all-consuming in society.

In each, we examine:

How people will behave

What do people need

How do we serve those needs

THE SIX STAGES & COVID-19

We are living through history in the making, but at what scale is still to be determined.  COVID-19’s infection and death rates have varied substantially in different parts of the world, but there’s no denying the global pandemic is still rippling throughout our economies and societies.

The 2014 Ebola Epidemic shows the scale of the impact and severity of the six stages are directly correlative to each other – leading to long-lasting changes in culture and society.  If an event spreads to enough countries, and and impact is high enough, we can expect those changes to be global and permanent.  September 11/The Global War on Terror (GWOT) also had six stages, but they were collapsed into a very compressed time period, allowing less critical examination and fewer learnings.  This pandemic is vastly higher in impact and scale.

We have a probable indication, pending shifts as a result of early re-openings, mutations, and other variables, of how deep the initial U.S. impact is. As the U.S. has a disproportional impact on the rest of the world culturally and economically, we can expect the globe to follow suit.  We will go through the six stages; the question is only how long stages 3 & 4 are and how large stages 5 & 6 become.  

STAGE 1: INITIATION

The start of any game-changing culture mover: from 1939 to Pearl Harbor, the outbreak of SARS or MERS. The world is different now: more media, faster change.  The long run-up of WW2 was compressed during COVID-19 into just 2-3 months of “initiation.”

How people behave

People tend to react slowly, and in disbelief, not understanding the size and scale of the event.

What do people need

People need accurate information, and perspective – which is almost impossible to provide.

How do we serve those needs

Clear, concise, and direct communication from trusted sources and relatable examples/situations.

Dates for COVID-19: December 2019 – March 2020

STAGE 2: REACTION

As people realize the size and scale, they react and change. For Ebola, it was the complete removal of gatherings and physical contact. For WW2, it was the period between Pearl Harbor (12/1941) and Midway (06/1942). For COVID-19, it’s social distancing and self-quarantine. It’s important to note that reaction is when the public realizes and reacts, not when leadership does.  Short-term economic damage is often widespread.

How people behave

People experience a forcible shift in their behavior as they adapt and respond, by inducement, control, or influence; they are fearful and feel helpless.

What do people need

Reassurance.  Everything is new. Every way of doing things is new. They need support and confidence in their authorities, and accurate information, and an outlet for their emotions.

How do we serve those needs

Information and empathy. The more that people know what’s coming down the road, the easier they adapt and deal, and the more supported they feel. And the faster they settle into Stage 3.

Dates for COVID-19: February 2020-Present (differs by geographic area).

STAGE 3: THE TEMPORARY NORMAL

This is where society settles into a new way of doing things—we know what’s happening, but not for how long. But society is very, very different. In the Great Depression, it was the period from 1932-beginning of WW2 (WW2 interrupted and pre-empted Stages 4-6 for the Depression). For WW2, it was Midway (06-1942) until D-Day (06-1944). Production was in high capacity, the country was on a war footing, women were in the workplace, and men at battle.

How people behave

People are calmer.  They accept huge changes because they believe they are temporary and necessary for the resolution of the crisis.  But the underlying uncertainty around length of time causes friction, which may manifest in civil disturbance.

What do people need

Support & diversion.  Most people have accepted their reality, but they still need emotional support.  More than that, they also need an escape from their new reality – entertainment, within the limits of this “new normal.”  Possible economic support, depending on the crisis.

How do we serve those needs

We continue and expand support, but we move to provide diversion, including through entertainment. In COVID-19, this is particularly important as the Temporary Normal involves isolation for millions of people in a social culture; it’s also the first time society has the capability of digital entertainment.

Dates for COVID-19: TBD

STAGE 4: THE FADE

The end is clear but not yet here. Anticipation is building for the end, and, if it takes too long, pressure will become overwhelming and cause friction. There is deep uncertainty for what lies ahead, but it is masked by anticipation.  In WW2, this is the period from D-Day to VE & VJ days.  The long-term economic changes as reflected by society become clearer.

How people behave

Anticipation begins to build. People still live in “the temporary normal,” but they have increasing demands and expectations for changes.

What do people need

Diversion & Clarity. Because of anticipation, people no longer need much emotional support, although economic support may still be warranted. Diversion is essential, not for avoiding the realities of The Temporary Normal, but rather to release energy from anticipation. More diversion, including through entertainment, is needed the longer the period, and malaise will set in if too long. People also need to know what the plans are for what’s coming –if we can.  In WW2, no one anticipated the end of segregation and the permanence of women in the workplace. We should try to anticipate what’s coming to provide for it.

How do we serve those needs

Full-scale diversion and entertainment to the limits permissible in The Temporary Normal and clear, and accurate information – the mirror image of Stage 2.

Dates for COVID-19: TBD

STAGE 5: MEMORIAL/CELEBRATION

The end of a society-changing crisis will bring memorial & celebration. The clearer the end, the bigger and more impactful the celebration, possibly for an extended period. For WW2, there were demarcations in VE and VJ days. For the Civil War, the same. Our most recent indications show that in Liberia (Ebola), there was a national day of celebration and a holiday (5/11/2015), but the end of a disease is “less clear,” and requires artificial demarcation by controlling authorities. The bigger Stage 3, the likely larger Stage 5 will be over time. 

How people behave

An immediate release during a time-limited period. There may be be impromptu celebrations, or eventually, permanent holidays that both acknowledge grief and loss but also memorialize it. (September 11 is the most recent example of how celebrations can even be somber, but also fade in importance over time; Memorial Day and July 4 are the opposite – somber at first, and celebratory over time.)

What do people need

Proper tonality, diversion/entertainment, and healthy channels of expression.  It is important to strike the right balance of somber acknowledgment and a channel for self-expression.  We’ve never had a global stage of celebration in the digital age, so the best we can do is estimate and guide based on current consumer behavior.

How do we serve those needs

Physical and digital commemoration are both important, as is the right tone. We will need to acknowledge the journey we’ve all been on with a note of inclusion and commonality, while also celebrating the release of such emotions.

Dates for COVID-19: TBD

STAGE 6: THE ALTERED FUTURE

By definition, these stages all culminate in a permanently altered society. If they do not, they were not crises large enough to be considered on this scale. WW2 brought about integration and the rise of women as equal partners in society and the workplace. The Civil War brought about the end of slavery and the permanent demarcation of the ”South” in U.S. society and culture. Ebola had smaller, but larger changes in West Africa. The Global War on Terror (GWOT) has engendered a permanent shift in the mindset about what war is and how we make decisions about life and liberty. Economic impact may be short-term, but changes may be permanent.

How people behave

Unknown and dependent on the crisis. Ebola brought about permanent changes in how communities and cultures interact in West Africa. COVID-19 is likely to have many changes small and large – people may digitize their lives more permanently through remote working and other isolationist behaviors; the government may work harder to prepare for another pandemic. The Six Stages allow us to try to sculpt the world we want to see, and the behaviors we want people to adopt, if we create actionable policy and make influential decisions early on.

What do people need

With the right guidance, the changes in culture can be permanent, but positive. The Global War on Terror was unguided and has led to continuous frustration and conflict; WW2 was the same, but ultimately resolved with greater equality. We need to quietly listen to where the public is headed, and show them the best version of themselves.

How do we serve those needs

Leverage public figures, governments, institutions, and platforms to reinforce positive change and discourage baser instincts; social and business institutions to lean into the change we want to see.

Dates for COVID-19: TBD